Henry Hub Rallies off Fib Support

The correction had looked proportionate but in fact went deeper.

However, yesterday's storage data release was the catalyst for a rally off the deeper Fib 0.618 retrace level. At the time of writing this week looks like being a bullish engulfing, outside up week.



Yesterday was a powerful reversal day, making a new low for the move only to then take out several days' highs in one session on very high volume. The low of that session is key support now as it looks like the correction off 2.759 is now over. Possible targets from here, should the 2.759 be traded over, include the 100% extension level at 3.033 (white solid line) or the 1.618 extension level at 3.563 (white dashed line.) Should price rally over 2.759, it would look like an inverse head and shoulders, with a target level of 3.616 (black dashed line.)



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Nordpool Declines to Range Support

Nordpool continues its decline.

This week has seen it test recent range support but otherwise the picture looks much as last week: the next target lower is the 19.09/19.07 level with 32.80 being key resistance.



The last few sessions have been rallies off that range support but until the range and trend resistance at 28.40 is traded over this can be viewed as some bottom picking/profit taking before the decline continues.



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Gold Choppy Correction

Gold has attempted to rally off the range support but it is not looking convincing.

The Weekly action remains on or under the moving averages and once again the previous bear channel resistance line has provided support. It looks like a consolidation before a move lower towards the Fib 0.382 retrace level (red dashed line) or the 100% extension level (white solid line.)



The price fell under the key support at 1592 (green dashed line) and so it is looking much more like a correction rather than a reversal. The correction could well rally to the 100% extension level at 1667 (white solid line) or 1680 where Fib retrace (red dashed line) coincides with range resistance but expect a choppy move up with the next clean sharp move being lower, towards the levels mentioned in the paragraph above.



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EUA Bounces Higher

EUA had a positive start to the month.

And that positive start has continued. The weekly outlook remains much the same, still within the range of 5.99 and 7.67. Only a break of those levels will signal the next major move.



The move over the high of the doji day led to five positive days in a row on good volume. With RSI positive above 50, should price rally over €7.00 (beige dashed line) the likely target higher would be where the 50% retrace level (red dashed line) and the 100% extension level (white solid line) coincide around 7.80/7.85.



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Brent Decline Pauses at 2011 Lows

Having reached 2011 lows last week, Brent has paused there.

Last week was a doji week on decent volume, closing just above the lows of 2011. However, this week is shaping into a bearish engulfing week. Should the low of the doji week give way, the next target lower would be the Fib 0.382 retrace level at 93.18 (red dashed line.)



Should the low of the doji week hold and a correction begin, that correction could find resistance where the Fib 0.382 retrace level coincides with range resistance at 108.15 (red dashed line.)



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German Power Declines to Channel Support

German Power has been declining in a bear channel for a while now.

It is now close to that channel support. If the channel support gives way, the next target could be the Fib 1.618 extension level at 45.95 (green dashed line.) Key resistance is 50.85 (red sold line.)



The daily action is well within the most recent bear channel with the most recent session finding support at the Fib 0.618 extension level (white dashed line.) Should that support give way, the next target lower would be the 100% extension level at 46.35 (white solid line.) Any trade over the blue dashed line at 48.50 would suggest a pause in the decline and over the red horizontal line at 49.95 would suggest a correction of the entire decline from €61.



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Dollar Index in Consolidation

The Dollar Index has been rallying recently.

The last couple of weeks have been within the range of the week previous to that. With RSI above 50 and ADX rising from a low level, this is likely a consolidation before another leg higher. 81.73 (red solid 100% line) should be decent support during this consolidation. 85.20 (blue 100% line) and then 86.08 (red dashed line) are reasonable Fib projection targets higher.



The consolidation is playing out around the Fib 0.618 extension level (pink dashed line,) just above the important range support at 81.80 (blue solid line.) RSI is declining from an over bought area and ADX, while not at an absolutely high level, is at a relatively high level for this asset. (As high as it has been since the sharp sell of in 2010.) This looks like a consolidation before another leg higher towards the 100% extension level (pink solid line) at 85.19. As above, 81.70 should be decent support and 80.50 (green dashed line) is key support for the current bull case.



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